Thursday, June 10, 2004

System/asset management - more buyouts soon ?

A few acquisitions in the system/asset management area recently shows the interest by companies to really try to solve this big headache for customers.
- Novadigm (private) - acquired by HP
- Marimba (MRBA) - acquired by BMC
- Wise (private) - bought by Altiris (ATRS).

I can also include EMC's VMWare buy in this group.

I was watching Marimba for a while, especially after Business Week mentioned it as a buyout target, but the stock seemed expensive. A few days later they came out with a earnings warning which led to a big drop in the stock, making it very attractive and i finally added it to my buy list. But before i could act on it, BMC snapped it up. It does make a good fit for BMC given its focus on management.

VMWare (and i am a BIG fan of their products) was the only IPO i was waiting for this year. EMC picked it up before it went public. A very smart buy indeed - and this could be a good revenue stream for EMC for years to come.

Can't say much abt Novadigm, except that it looks like a small operation and it could be just a first in a series of acquisitions for HP (more on it a bit later).

Altiris' takeover of Wise was very interesting and a good one. Having played with Wise i believe it is an elegant product.

I also had a small private investing success in this area, netting me a 150% return in some 3 months! Can't go into details.

So, what other possible targets exist in this sector ?
- I think Altiris itself is a takeover candidate - a prime one. I haven't used it myself but got a review from a close friend who says it is great.
HP recently revealed that they own a good number of shares in Altiris. Also, some Novadigm guy recently joined Altiris. I definitely think HP is the most likely buyer. Other possible buyers include Novell (Utah!; Novell has a similar product but not a "complete" one), IBM, EMC, MSFT.
I own a few shares and plan to keep accumulating since the current price is attractive.
- Opsware is also a good target - with EMC or IBM being the likely buyers. There is some Legato (acquired by EMC) connection here.
I own a few shares, but will not be buying more at the current price since it looks a bit pricey. Will wait for some bad news to add.
- Quest Software - these guys are all over the place - a few dozen tools - with
the most interesting being DeployDirector. The install base doesn't seem to be that large. I did try out this product and i think is a very valuable one if there was a way to integrate it with other deployment tools. Quest also has a few other Windows specific management tools which could be of interest to a buyer.
I don't own any stock and won't be buying until i see some insider buying or some big contract.

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