Friday, May 28, 2004

Efficient markets and takeover targets.

One question that i am asked very often - if there are obvious takeover targets, won't an efficient market ensure that the valuation gaps are closed in no time ?
Frankly, that is what i thought too, but it turns out that is not exactly the case. I cannot rule out, without a sufficiently long run (over 5-7 years) of hits, that luck may be playing a big part in my success so far.
Ignoring lady luck for now, here is why i think there is room for some good returns following this strategy :
a) Impatience! Thank this human quality for creating so many opportunities. So many investors out there want to double their money overnight; most can't stand the thought of waiting forever ( forever = greater than a month! ) for a buyout to materialize.
b) The major investment houses have a quarterly race, which prevents a lot of them from sitting on a potential target for a long enough duration.
c) Being in tech and having seen all those crappy "analysis" of tech companies from Wall St., i realize i understand tech better than them, especially when i am using the stuff on a daily basis. This should give me a slight edge while evaluating tech takeover targets.

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