Sunday, February 18, 2007

A bit late to the party

A few recent cover stories, including ones in Smart Money and Kiplinger, talk about tech being back, and why this time it is for real, urging readers to invest in technology now.

To that I say, it is a bit too late. The time to buy tech at bargain prices was close to two years ago. At this point it is hard to find a reasonably priced tech stock. Moreover, these new stories were touting Akamai, Apple, HP and Cisco, which are far from cheap, instead of atleast recommending beaten down stocks like Dell and Symantec.

The land of self-delusion is in another, though mercifully much smaller, bubble. The last remaining see-through/vacant buildings have been taken up - this includes the Excite@Home office complex and the Siebel building off of 101 (the latter has a nice color/curvature and is among the few buildings in the valley that don't drain life and energy from humans).

So-called experts - Jack Grubman, Quattrone, Mary Meeker, Henry Blodget, Abby Cohen - all have gained back atleast some of the trust/respect. The sheep are ready and waiting to be led to the slaughter house again.

Bay Area residents have reached a point where they think that phony clicks on targeted ads, worthless user-generated content and mutual admiration forums called social networking sites can solve world hunger and fix the Iraq problem. Cisco is getting into social networking, while the CEO is probably still milking the options cow like there is no tomorrow.

Some things never change. How come lemmings have not gone extinct ? Does evolution work ?


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