Wednesday, October 13, 2004

(Un)Cover stories ...

I will be occasionally writing on that part of my portfolio that is not made of takeover targets. This is one such post.

I would consider this a special case of contrarian investing, based on the number and frequency of cover stories and (lack of) glowing terms for a chief executive. So far it has worked like a charm - ofcourse, that may just be a coincidence!

Here are the ones that have rewarded me and others that are on my list.

  • Intel (INTC) and Cisco (CSCO): Bought both these early last year when very negative pieces started appearing in the press - a great indicator of bottoms. Started selling early this year when more than one article called Chambers/Grove/Otellini as heroes. Watch out for that key word - hero!
  • Starbucks (SBUX): Made close to 100% profit and sold after the first cover story in an investing mag. I sold a bit early, but don't regret it. If you are holding it, it is time to get rid of it. The number of articles using hottest brand alongside Starbucks has increased dramatically recently.
    Personaly, I think Starbucks' rapid growth in the US is over. Falling consumer confidence will hurt them before they hurt others first. I should know - I have gone from 3 lattes / day to 1 latte and I regular coffee / day to just 1 regular coffee over the last 3 years. And these days, I avoid Starbucks when I can and go to a smaller cafe that saves me a bit.
    Moreover, the rapid mushrooming of Starbucks has also come with increasingly bad, and at times downright rude, service. I am now betting on Peets (PEET).
    The final SELL signal came recently when, having written to Starbucks customer service about some of the bad stores, I heard not so much as a Thank You from them!
  • Krisky Kreme (KKD): A Forbes piece claiming it to be the hottest brand helped me avoid this stock last year when it was at around $40/share. A SEC investigation and few negative pieces later, the stock is at $12/share and looks like both a value and a takeover play. I bought some recently and will be adding around the current price.
  • Boeing (BA): Bought last year after reading countless articles on how Boeing had lost it. Sold recently after the first hint of change in editors' mood.
  • EBay (EBAY): Never owned any and if you do, get out now. The positive pieces on EBay have reached insane levels.

I can go on but will stop here.
By the way, not-so-glowing pieces have started appearing on Intel again. It is time to start buying Intel, but don't put in large orders yet. For that, wait for it to reach a fever-pitch - it will, eventually.

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