Sunday, September 19, 2004

It is all about content.

I promised in an earlier post to write about possible picks in the content sector. Content here refers to video/dvd and to a lesser extent audio.

MGM was recently bought by Sony after a long race with Time Warner. Time Warner lost but it must be looking at some others now.
Comcast made a hostile bid for Disney a while back, but failed in its attempt. Recently it entered into an agreement to buy 20% of MGM from Sony. But Comcast won't be satisfied with that - I am sure they will be back buying!

Shows just how desperate companies are for pure/valuable content.

Here are all the content players and my take on them.
  • Disney (DIS) : This is greatly undervalued, but as long as the shareholder-unfriendly management/board is in place, don't expect a miracle. If only Eisner had taken less from this money machine and instead rewarded shareholders! This has been a classic trickle up example - take from the shareholders and turn millionaire execs into billionaires. I am still buying at the current price in the hope that the current management will be ousted and the company will be sold for a decent price a few years down the road.
  • Lions Gate Films (LGF): Their decision to take on Fahrenheit 9/11 distribution gave a good deal of publicity. The stock has soared. They have a great library of movies and that makes them a target. Current valuation is high, buy only on a good pullback.
  • 4 Kids Entertainment (KDE) : Owns/licenses a variety of kid/teen culture icons, including a good number of successful Japanese characters. Mints money! Fairly valued and a good buy.
  • Marvel Enterprises (MVL): Owns/licenses thousands of cartoon/movie characters, including Spiderman. Undervalued currently - a good long-term takeover play.
  • Imax (IMAX): A great collection of IMAX movies (as well as IMAX theaters) makes this a good target. Undervalued, with a lot of insider buying. Accumulate at this price.
  • Playboy (PLA) : Has been in a funk for a while, but the stock is undervalued I think. The brand itself, apart from all that great ;-0 content, is one of the most recognized. A takeover is unlikely, but going private is an option ?
Among the above, I own a few of Disney and Imax. I am still buying Imax regularly. Will consider Marvel seriously soon.
Have been buying Playboy for a while now. Sitting back and waiting for its true value to be revealed!

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