Sunday, August 29, 2004

Oracle's shopping list

Check out Oracle's internal evaluation notes on various companies it was eyeing - Targets - upside/drawback.
This is a must read if you are seriously interested in M&A. These notes were made public as part of the current anti-trust battle involing Oracle's hostile bid on PeopleSoft.
I missed only one in this list! - SCT Corp.

Here is my take on all the targets listed :
  • Sybase (SY) : I own a few; worth adding at current price. Don't bet big time on it. On shaky ground, if it doesn't get acquired.
  • BEA systems (BEAS): Very risky now after the recent departure of top execs (6 have left so far!). Still has lots of cash (around $1 billion!) and hence worth adding to your portfolio.
  • Lawson Software: I own a few, but not adding right now. No growth by itself. If acquisition doesn't happen, no real future.
  • Cerner (CERN): This was a good Mean Reversion play when the stock tumbled to around 16 more than a year ago on extremely bad news. I bought a large chunk, and sold most of my holdings in the 23-27 range. I sold the last remaining ones last week at 44!. Way too expensive right now. Buy if it goes below 25.
  • Business Objects (BOBJ): good buy at current price. Not at all speculative, since the potential buyer list is large.
  • PeopleSoft (PSFT) : good buy at current price. If not Oracle, someone else will end up buying this someday.
  • J.D. Edwards (JDEC) : acquired by PeopleSoft a while ago. This is the one that started off my lucky M&A hit run!
  • Documentum (DCTM): bought by EMC a while ago. Another hit for me.
  • SCT: never heard of it!

If you want to buy just one from the above list, it should be Business Objects (BOBJ).

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