Commodities boom top ?
In the past, bull market ends have been marked by aggressive M&A activity with buyers getting involved in dogfights and winners losing by paying more than they should.
Today's and this past week's activity points to a top in the oil/metals/minerals sector.
- Mittal made a sweetened offer for Arecelor which finally was accepted! A deal for sure, but at what price ?
- Anadarko Petroleum (APC) last week announced buyouts of Kerr-McGee (KMG) and Western Gas Resources (WGR) for a combined $22 billion in cash, taking on debt to finance the purchases. Anadarko has grossly overpaid, with premiums above 40% in both cases. Anadarko was itself seen for long as a takeover target, but now it becomes too big to be swallowed by most.
- Phelps Dodge (PD), the copper leader, is set to announce that it is buying Falconbridge and Inco for a combined $40 billion, thus getting into nickel. Inco had made an offer for Falconbridge just a few weeks ago, and in fact the final clearance from the U.S justice department for that deal had come in only last Friday! Falconbridge had meanwhile received a hostile bid from Xstrata and Inco had received a hostile bid from Teck Cominco. Is your head reeling yet ?
Among these, the only one that I ever seriously considered adding to my portfolio was Inco, but I could never place a fair-value on it.
I have been buying slowly into smaller natural gas players as well as silver/platinum/palladium players, but as usual, only when I see bargains as indicated by book value, insider activity and dividends.
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