Sunday, January 23, 2005

Digital River buying ?

Digital River (DRIV) announced last week that it is raising around $200 million. This will end up being used for a buyout soon. Who is likely to be the target ?

Assuming that the target is a public company and a decent premium will be paid, I think Zomax (ZOMX) makes for a good fit. It complements Digital River's electronic delivery with the regular shrink-wrap delivery method which will take a while to disappear completely.(I own a few shares of Zomax).

Other possible targets include Aladdin Knowledge Systems (ALDN) for enhanced license/copyright protection solutions, Programmer's Paradise (PROG), Tucows (TCOW).

Digital River may also go after its smaller competitor, Intraware (ITRA), though I am hoping that is not the case! Intraware is among my largest holdings, and even if it receives a substantial premium from today's price, I will barely break even. I would rather have Intraware grow slowly over the next 3-5 years and take on Digital River.


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