Saturday, July 17, 2004

All that glitters IS gold ?

I have been planning to write on gold for a while now. The last 3 months have been very quiet as far as gold price goes. It is an uneasy period.
Most of the analysts out there believe that gold has topped out. To me, it looks like, they are ignoring one important factor - India!
India still has the largest private horde of gold (correct me if this has changed) and the love for gold which disappeared in the 90s is set to make a comeback. The new wealth (only in tiny percentage of the populace, but still a gold-loving part of it) and the fall of dollar as a "hard" currency over the last 2 years (when the dollar fell even against the meek rupee!) will increase the appetite for the yellow metal over the next few years.
And there is the possibility that a lot of the middle-east money now invested in the US may start flowing out - atleast a small part of it will go towards buying gold.
Moreover, the recent merger activity is very reassuring - just look at the 4-way battle among Wheaton, CDE, GSS and Iamgold!
I own a few metal stocks, some for their takeover chances and others as proxies for the metal's rise.
Here is a (incomplete) list:
  • Coeur d'Alene Mines Corporation (CDE)
  • Wheaton River Minerals (WHT)
  • Durban Rooderpoort Deep (DROOY)
  • Apex Silver Mines (SIL)
  • Pan American Silver (PAAS)
  • Newmont Mining (NEM)
  • Bema Gold (BGO)

Of these, Bema Gold, DROOY and PAAS are likely takeover targets.
As i noted earlier, Wheaton already has 2 competing bids.

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